Was at the MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference all weekend, aka Sports Nerd Lallapalooza. Despite the fact that baseball was a clear third (or fourth), the event brought together some great analytical minds and it was fun to meet so many great writers and thinkers. I’ll have a piece up on FanGraphs tomorrow about the baseball panel, a highlight for baseball lovers.
In the meantime, my San Diego Padres and New York Mets team previews went up, neither of which inspired the 1000-word comments of my San Francisco Giants team preview. Can’t tell what that means, but probably has something to say about the respective fanbases. Also, I guess San Francisco fans are a little tired about hearing that their championship team wasn’t perfect, while Mets fans are used to discussions about the flaws of their on-field product and off-field gossip. Padres fans are just hoping for a little offense – just enough – to be relevant in one of the weaker divisions in baseball (I promise I don’t hate the Giants, it’s just true).
For AmazinAvenue, I used existing research by Jeff Zimmerman to predict the chance that the Mets starters in camp hit the disabled list this year. The average starting pitcher has a 39.1% chance of hitting the DL (!), but there are two pitchers on the Mets – Chris Young and Chris Capuano – that are among the most likely pitchers in baseball to hit the DL this year (62 and 63% likely, respectively). There are actually a few more surprising numbers in the short article, so even if you don’t like the Mets, check it out.